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Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Some interesting theories about risk

(An excerpt from my personal rant.)
I’ve thought a little bit about how seeing situations without statistics can lure people into either paranoia or a false sense of security. For example, what if I was to pick a local delivery job, and I wonder which one would I be safer with; Armored car while open carrying a Kel-Tec PLR-16/custom Arsenal SAM7K pistol (with 100 round Surefire magazine for the PLR or 40 or 50 round magazine for the AK) or custom Glock 20/21 (perhaps converted to 9x25mm Dillon with 30 round magazines) (and perhaps a long gun or 2 in the truck), or regular delivery while conceal carrying a Springfield XD-S 9 or S&W Model M&P340 CT/Ruger LCR .357 (and if possible, a Kel-Tec KSG or more likely, a Kel-Tec SU-16C snuck into a bag). For example, let’s say that I am not a deep thinker, and I am choosing rather to work for Garda armored (sorry Dunbar & fellow competitors) or UPS (sorry FedEx), on the basis of safety. And if I don’t think, I would chose Garda because I get to open carry a full sized handgun, which gives me a better sense of security (no pun intended). But, statistically speaking, I am probably better off working for UPS because I am willing to bet that regular delivery drivers are targeted less often than armored car workers (statistically speaking). Sure, if I was in a direct fight, open carrying the weapons I described would be better. But how often does it even happen?
Another somewhat related case is getting scared without checking statistics. When I was a little kid, from watching too many murder investigation shows (plus action movie advertisements), I was paranoid into thinking that literally at any second there would be tatted up bad guys brandishing assault rifles (like what Hollywood shows), mostly M-4’s and AK-M’s. But in reality, as I said before, that is quite rare, and I felt safer after actually doing the math.

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